New Delhi [India], The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its latest medium-term oil market outlook, which examines how India's participation in the global oil market could change between now and 2030. The report examines energy transition patterns that may affect oil demand in various industries, and how these changes may affect the country's energy security.
The report indicates that world oil demand growth is expected to slow in the coming years as energy transitions proceed. Additionally, according to the IEA's new oil market outlook, global oil production is set to accelerate, which will ease market stress and expand excess capacity to levels unseen outside the COVID crisis.
According to the report, this marks a significant shift as the energy transition advances and powerful forces reshape the sector.The report, titled Oil 2024, provides a comprehensive analysis of future oil supply and demand, highlighting key trends and implications for energy security, refining, trade and investment. This will be of great relief to India, as it Imports more than 80 percent of its needs. India's crude import bill stood at US$132.4 billion in FY2024 and US$157.5 billion in FY23. If crude oil prices stabilize due to abundant availability, it will be good for the Indian economy.
Projections indicate that India will emerge as the primary contributor to global oil demand growth by 2030, and will overtake China by 2027.India's anticipated growth in oil demand is projected to reach about 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2023, up by more than a third. Projected global demand growth of 3.2 million bpd by 2030.
The IEA report outlines a significant slowdown in global oil demand growth as the energy transition gathers pace. Despite a projected increase in oil use due to growing economies in Asia and rising demand from the aviation and petrochemical sectors, these gains are being overshadowed by a number of factors. is expected to be balanced.
Key factors influencing this slowdown include increased electric vehicle adoption, improved fuel efficiency in conventional vehicles, and a decline in the use of oil for power generation in the Middle East.Structural economic changes, particularly in China, also contribute to the change. As a result, global oil demand, which averaged just over 102 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, is projected to reach closer to 106 million bpd by the end of the decade. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said, "As As the impact of the pandemic recedes, the clean energy transition advances, and the structure of China's economy changes, global oil demand growth is slowing and is set to peak by 2030. This year, We expect demand to increase by about 1 million barrels per day."
Birol said, "This report's projections based on the latest data show a major supply surplus emerging this decade, which suggests that oil companies will want to ensure that their business strategies and plans are prepared for the changes occurring. Are.,
In contrast to moderate demand, global oil production capacity is set to experience substantial growth, led primarily by the United States and other producers in the Americas. The report estimates that total supply capacity will increase to approximately 114 million barrels per day by 2030. million bpd, which is 8 million bpd more than estimated global demand.
This surplus in supply could lead to unprecedented levels of excess capacity not seen outside of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Producers outside the OPEC+ alliance are at the forefront of this expansion, with non-OPEC+ countries expected to contribute three-quarters of the projected capacity addition. The United States alone is expected to contribute 2.1 million bpd of non-OPEC+ gains. Estimates include a collective 2.7 million bpd, with additional significant contributions from Argentina, Brazil, Canada and Guyana.The emerging supply surplus has profound implications for oil markets and producer economies, particularly within OPEC and the US shale industry.
This suggests a period of increased market stability but also poses potential challenges for productive economies that have historically depended on high oil prices for economic stability. The IEA report suggests that capacity additions may initially will meet the growing demand, but the flow of new projects is expected to slow down by the end of the decade.
This slowdown in project approvals could ultimately stifle capacity additions among major non-OPEC+ producers.
Nonetheless, the report said that if existing project proposals are approved, an additional 1.3 million bpd of non-OPEC+ capacity could be achieved by 2030.The report projects a modest increase of 3.3 million bpd in global refining capacity from 2023 to 2030, which is below historical trends but is considered sufficient to meet projected demand for refined oil products.
This forecast, combined with an increase in the supply of unrefined fuels such as biofuels and natural gas liquids, suggests possible refinery closures in the latter half of the decade and a slowdown in capacity growth in Asia after 2027.
Despite the slower growth in oil demand, the IEA highlights that barring strong policy measures or significant changes in consumption patterns, global demand is still projected to be 3.2 million bpd higher in 2030 than in 2023. This increase Mainly driven by emerging economies in Asia, especially India, which is expected to see more oil use for transportation.
In contrast, advanced economies are set to continue a long-term decline in oil demand, falling from about 46 million bpd in 2023 to less than 43 million bpd by 2030, a level last seen in 1991, excluding pandemic periods. The level was gone.The IEA's outlook underlines the importance of maintaining a focus on energy security amid these transitions. While forecasts suggest a comfortably supplied market, oil companies and producers will need to brace for the evolving landscape of energy transitions, policy changes and market dynamics. Vigilant planning and strategic adaptation by countries is required.
Meanwhile, India's current oil stock holding level is equivalent to 66 days of net-import cover, with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) stock covering seven days. In comparison, IEA member countries maintain reserves equal to 90 days of their demand. Although India has associate member status and is not a full member of the agency, there is a need to enhance its capacity to respond to potential oil supply disruptions.Strengthening and implementing SPR programs and enhancing oil industry preparedness are important steps to mitigate the impact of war-like emergencies on energy supplies.
The report indicates that world oil demand growth is expected to slow in the coming years as energy transitions proceed. Additionally, according to the IEA's new oil market outlook, global oil production is set to accelerate, which will ease market stress and expand excess capacity to levels unseen outside the COVID crisis.
According to the report, this marks a significant shift as the energy transition advances and powerful forces reshape the sector.The report, titled Oil 2024, provides a comprehensive analysis of future oil supply and demand, highlighting key trends and implications for energy security, refining, trade and investment. This will be of great relief to India, as it Imports more than 80 percent of its needs. India's crude import bill stood at US$132.4 billion in FY2024 and US$157.5 billion in FY23. If crude oil prices stabilize due to abundant availability, it will be good for the Indian economy.
Projections indicate that India will emerge as the primary contributor to global oil demand growth by 2030, and will overtake China by 2027.India's anticipated growth in oil demand is projected to reach about 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2023, up by more than a third. Projected global demand growth of 3.2 million bpd by 2030.
The IEA report outlines a significant slowdown in global oil demand growth as the energy transition gathers pace. Despite a projected increase in oil use due to growing economies in Asia and rising demand from the aviation and petrochemical sectors, these gains are being overshadowed by a number of factors. is expected to be balanced.
Key factors influencing this slowdown include increased electric vehicle adoption, improved fuel efficiency in conventional vehicles, and a decline in the use of oil for power generation in the Middle East.Structural economic changes, particularly in China, also contribute to the change. As a result, global oil demand, which averaged just over 102 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, is projected to reach closer to 106 million bpd by the end of the decade. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said, "As As the impact of the pandemic recedes, the clean energy transition advances, and the structure of China's economy changes, global oil demand growth is slowing and is set to peak by 2030. This year, We expect demand to increase by about 1 million barrels per day."
Birol said, "This report's projections based on the latest data show a major supply surplus emerging this decade, which suggests that oil companies will want to ensure that their business strategies and plans are prepared for the changes occurring. Are.,
In contrast to moderate demand, global oil production capacity is set to experience substantial growth, led primarily by the United States and other producers in the Americas. The report estimates that total supply capacity will increase to approximately 114 million barrels per day by 2030. million bpd, which is 8 million bpd more than estimated global demand.
This surplus in supply could lead to unprecedented levels of excess capacity not seen outside of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Producers outside the OPEC+ alliance are at the forefront of this expansion, with non-OPEC+ countries expected to contribute three-quarters of the projected capacity addition. The United States alone is expected to contribute 2.1 million bpd of non-OPEC+ gains. Estimates include a collective 2.7 million bpd, with additional significant contributions from Argentina, Brazil, Canada and Guyana.The emerging supply surplus has profound implications for oil markets and producer economies, particularly within OPEC and the US shale industry.
This suggests a period of increased market stability but also poses potential challenges for productive economies that have historically depended on high oil prices for economic stability. The IEA report suggests that capacity additions may initially will meet the growing demand, but the flow of new projects is expected to slow down by the end of the decade.
This slowdown in project approvals could ultimately stifle capacity additions among major non-OPEC+ producers.
Nonetheless, the report said that if existing project proposals are approved, an additional 1.3 million bpd of non-OPEC+ capacity could be achieved by 2030.The report projects a modest increase of 3.3 million bpd in global refining capacity from 2023 to 2030, which is below historical trends but is considered sufficient to meet projected demand for refined oil products.
This forecast, combined with an increase in the supply of unrefined fuels such as biofuels and natural gas liquids, suggests possible refinery closures in the latter half of the decade and a slowdown in capacity growth in Asia after 2027.
Despite the slower growth in oil demand, the IEA highlights that barring strong policy measures or significant changes in consumption patterns, global demand is still projected to be 3.2 million bpd higher in 2030 than in 2023. This increase Mainly driven by emerging economies in Asia, especially India, which is expected to see more oil use for transportation.
In contrast, advanced economies are set to continue a long-term decline in oil demand, falling from about 46 million bpd in 2023 to less than 43 million bpd by 2030, a level last seen in 1991, excluding pandemic periods. The level was gone.The IEA's outlook underlines the importance of maintaining a focus on energy security amid these transitions. While forecasts suggest a comfortably supplied market, oil companies and producers will need to brace for the evolving landscape of energy transitions, policy changes and market dynamics. Vigilant planning and strategic adaptation by countries is required.
Meanwhile, India's current oil stock holding level is equivalent to 66 days of net-import cover, with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) stock covering seven days. In comparison, IEA member countries maintain reserves equal to 90 days of their demand. Although India has associate member status and is not a full member of the agency, there is a need to enhance its capacity to respond to potential oil supply disruptions.Strengthening and implementing SPR programs and enhancing oil industry preparedness are important steps to mitigate the impact of war-like emergencies on energy supplies.
