New Delhi: Surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean are expected to rise by 1.0°C to 3.0°C between 2020 and 2100, which will push me into near-permanent heatwave conditions, intensify cyclones, impact monsoons and Will cause increase. According to a new study, sea levels.
The study, led by climate scientist Roxy Mathew Cole of the Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), showed that marine heatwaves (periods of unusually high ocean temperatures) are increasing by 20 days per year (during the 1970s). is estimated. -2000) to 220–250 days per year, pushing the tropical Indian Ocean into a basin-wide near-permanent heatwave state by the end of the 21st century.
Marine heat waves cause habitat destruction due to coral bleaching, destruction of seagrass beds, and loss of seagrass forests, which adversely impacts the fisheries sector.They also cause cyclones to intensify rapidly.
The rapid warming in the Indian Ocean is not limited to the surface only. The water content of the Indian Ocean from the surface to a depth of 2,000 m is currently increasing at a rate of 4.5 zeta-joules per decade and is projected to increase at a rate of 16–22 zeta-joules per decade. The future, states the stud titled "Future Projection for the Tropical Indian Ocean".
"The increase in the amount of heat in the future is equivalent to adding the energy equivalent of a Hiroshima atomic bomb explosion every second, all day, every day for a decade," Cole said.,
The maximum heat will be in the northwestern Indian Ocean, including the Arabian Sea, while the heat will reduce over the Sumatra and Java coasts.
Amid rapid ocean warming, changes in the seasonal cycle of surface temperatures are projected to lead to an increase in extreme weather events in the Indo-Pacific region.
While maximum basin-average temperatures in the Indian Ocean during 1980–2020 ranged between 2 °C and 28 °C year-round, minimum temperatures by the end of the 21st century will range between 28.5 °C and 30.7 °C. -round, under a high emissions scenario.
Sea surface temperatures above 28 °C are generally favorable for deep convection and cyclogenesis.The authors said the incidence of heavy rainfall events and extremely severe cyclones has already increased since the 1950s and is projected to increase further as ocean temperatures rise.
Due to increased ocean warming, sea levels may also rise. Thermal expansion of water contributes to more than half of sea level rise in the Indian Ocean, which is larger than the contribution from glacier and sea ice melting.
Changes in the Indian Ocean Dipole, a phenomenon that influences monsoons and cyclone formation, are also predicted. By the end of the 21st century, the frequency of extreme bipolar events is projected to increase by 66 percent while the frequency of moderate events is projected to decrease by 52 percent.The study authors predict that ocean acidification will accelerate, causing surface pH to drop from a pH above 8.1 to below 7.7 by the end of the century. Surface chlorophyll and net primary productivity are also predicted to decline, with the strongest reductions of about 8–10 percent in the western Arabian Sea.
"Projected changes in pH could be detrimental to marine ecosystems because many marine organisms, particularly corals and organisms that depend on calcification to form and maintain their shells, are sensitive to changes in ocean acidity. The change may be easier to fathom when we realize that a drop in human blood pH to 0 can result in serious health consequences such as failure of multiple organs," Cole said.
Climate change has major social and economic impacts in the Indian Ocean region, which borders 40 countries and is home to one-third of the global population.Currently, the Indian Ocean and its surrounding countries stand out as the region most at risk from natural hazards globally, with coastal communities vulnerable to weather and climate extremes.
The study, led by climate scientist Roxy Mathew Cole of the Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), showed that marine heatwaves (periods of unusually high ocean temperatures) are increasing by 20 days per year (during the 1970s). is estimated. -2000) to 220–250 days per year, pushing the tropical Indian Ocean into a basin-wide near-permanent heatwave state by the end of the 21st century.
Marine heat waves cause habitat destruction due to coral bleaching, destruction of seagrass beds, and loss of seagrass forests, which adversely impacts the fisheries sector.They also cause cyclones to intensify rapidly.
The rapid warming in the Indian Ocean is not limited to the surface only. The water content of the Indian Ocean from the surface to a depth of 2,000 m is currently increasing at a rate of 4.5 zeta-joules per decade and is projected to increase at a rate of 16–22 zeta-joules per decade. The future, states the stud titled "Future Projection for the Tropical Indian Ocean".
"The increase in the amount of heat in the future is equivalent to adding the energy equivalent of a Hiroshima atomic bomb explosion every second, all day, every day for a decade," Cole said.,
The maximum heat will be in the northwestern Indian Ocean, including the Arabian Sea, while the heat will reduce over the Sumatra and Java coasts.
Amid rapid ocean warming, changes in the seasonal cycle of surface temperatures are projected to lead to an increase in extreme weather events in the Indo-Pacific region.
While maximum basin-average temperatures in the Indian Ocean during 1980–2020 ranged between 2 °C and 28 °C year-round, minimum temperatures by the end of the 21st century will range between 28.5 °C and 30.7 °C. -round, under a high emissions scenario.
Sea surface temperatures above 28 °C are generally favorable for deep convection and cyclogenesis.The authors said the incidence of heavy rainfall events and extremely severe cyclones has already increased since the 1950s and is projected to increase further as ocean temperatures rise.
Due to increased ocean warming, sea levels may also rise. Thermal expansion of water contributes to more than half of sea level rise in the Indian Ocean, which is larger than the contribution from glacier and sea ice melting.
Changes in the Indian Ocean Dipole, a phenomenon that influences monsoons and cyclone formation, are also predicted. By the end of the 21st century, the frequency of extreme bipolar events is projected to increase by 66 percent while the frequency of moderate events is projected to decrease by 52 percent.The study authors predict that ocean acidification will accelerate, causing surface pH to drop from a pH above 8.1 to below 7.7 by the end of the century. Surface chlorophyll and net primary productivity are also predicted to decline, with the strongest reductions of about 8–10 percent in the western Arabian Sea.
"Projected changes in pH could be detrimental to marine ecosystems because many marine organisms, particularly corals and organisms that depend on calcification to form and maintain their shells, are sensitive to changes in ocean acidity. The change may be easier to fathom when we realize that a drop in human blood pH to 0 can result in serious health consequences such as failure of multiple organs," Cole said.
Climate change has major social and economic impacts in the Indian Ocean region, which borders 40 countries and is home to one-third of the global population.Currently, the Indian Ocean and its surrounding countries stand out as the region most at risk from natural hazards globally, with coastal communities vulnerable to weather and climate extremes.