The seat fell vacant after Bima Bharti resigned to contest the Lok Sabha elections from Purnea, which he lost. Now, Bharti is contesting the assembly by-election on an RJD ticket, after being elected as the JD(U) candidate in the 2020 assembly elections.

The JD(U) has fielded Kaladhar Mandal as its candidate and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has actively campaigned for him, with BJP leaders also offering support to him. Also, Shankar Singh, a former Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) MP who was associated with the LJPRV, is contesting as an independent candidate after being denied candidacy by Chirag Paswan.

“I asked Chirag Paswan for a ticket, but he told me that the seat had been allotted to the JD(U) under the alliance. Consequently, I decided to run independently for this seat. I am confident of winning this seat,” Singh said.

The dynamics of this election are determined by these key actors and their respective political strategies and alliances.

During a rally on July 6, Nitish Kumar declared, “We have given the identity to Bima Bharti and she left our party to become an MP. “No one knew her before.”

Bima Bharti refuted her claim and highlighted that she won her first assembly election as an independent candidate in 2000.

“As Chief Minister of Bihar, he should not lie or mislead people. I don't need anyone's help. I know my strength. The people of Rupauli and Purnea are my strength. Nitish Kumar should not mislead people by telling them that he has given me an identity,” Bharti said.

Bima Bharti is campaigning vigorously and she too has sought support from MP Pappu Yadav. Interestingly, Bharti and Pappu Yadav were rivals in the recent Lok Sabha elections, where the RJD nominated Bharti by obstructing Yadav's candidature. Yadav won the contest while Bharti came third.

Bima Bharti's political journey began as an independent candidate in 2000. She won against Rupauli and since then she has been elected five times while she was associated with the JD(U) and the RJD.

Purnea district, where Rupauli is located, is characterized by its politics involving muscular men (bahubali leaders). Bima Bharti's husband Awadhesh Mandal is a Bahubali leader with numerous criminal cases and his influence is said to have played an important role in Bharti's repeated electoral successes in Rupauli. Now, another Bahubali leader Shankar Singh is contesting as an independent candidate for the same seat, with a history of rivalry with Awadhesh Mandal.

The caste equations in Rupauli are crucial. RJD candidate Bima Bharti has the support of Muslims, Yadavs and Nishads, besides the votes of her own caste. The JD(U) candidate, Kaladhar Mandal, also from the Gangota caste (categorized under the EBC), aims to secure votes from the extremely backward classes. Bharti and Mandal's shared caste background adds another layer of competition, while Singh's Rajput identity is likely to attract upper-caste voters.