New Delhi, India's economy will grow more than 7 percent, even closer to 7.5 percent, in the current fiscal year thanks to expectations of an above-normal monsoon and the absence of known global risks so far. the moment, economic think tank NCAER said in its report. Monthly review.
He said high-frequency indicators reveal that the national economy has remained resilient and all agencies have also revised upward growth projections for 2024-25.
The range of projections for India for the current fiscal year is between 7.2 and 6.2 percent, NCAER said.
NCAER Director General Poonam Gupta said, "GDP growth during 2024-25 may turn out to be higher than 7 per cent and even closer to 7.5 per cent."
This outlook is supported by the buoyancy in economic activity seen in the first quarter, a strong policy focus on investment, growth and macroeconomic stability and expectations of a normal monsoon, Gupta added.
With inflation apparently having peaked, monetary policy is unlikely to tighten further, he said, "Finally, the global environment also appears benign in the absence of any known global risks so far."
Gupta said controlling food prices remains a challenge.
"A broader policy framework may be needed to address it, including creating a climate-resilient food supply and also a gentle shift towards packaged and preserved food supplies to close the periodic gap between supply and demand." that has become routine," he added.
Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of India pegged the GDP growth rate for FY25 at 7.2 per cent.
Retail inflation eased to a 12-month low of 4.7 percent in May, although food inflation remained elevated.
The RBI, which is mandated to ensure that inflation remains at 4 per cent (with a margin of 2 per cent on either side), mainly takes into account the CPI (inflation based on consumer price index) when develop its monetary policy.
High-frequency indicators reveal that the national economy remains resilient, NCAER said.
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for both the manufacturing and services sectors maintained expansionary momentum despite slowing slightly in May.
Industrial production index (IIP) growth of major industries accelerated in April 2024; Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection remained buoyant year after year; bank credit growth remained above 20 percent despite some slowdown in personal credit growth; and expectations of an "above normal" monsoon despite poor rains in June remained strong for the agriculture sector, he added.
He said high-frequency indicators reveal that the national economy has remained resilient and all agencies have also revised upward growth projections for 2024-25.
The range of projections for India for the current fiscal year is between 7.2 and 6.2 percent, NCAER said.
NCAER Director General Poonam Gupta said, "GDP growth during 2024-25 may turn out to be higher than 7 per cent and even closer to 7.5 per cent."
This outlook is supported by the buoyancy in economic activity seen in the first quarter, a strong policy focus on investment, growth and macroeconomic stability and expectations of a normal monsoon, Gupta added.
With inflation apparently having peaked, monetary policy is unlikely to tighten further, he said, "Finally, the global environment also appears benign in the absence of any known global risks so far."
Gupta said controlling food prices remains a challenge.
"A broader policy framework may be needed to address it, including creating a climate-resilient food supply and also a gentle shift towards packaged and preserved food supplies to close the periodic gap between supply and demand." that has become routine," he added.
Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of India pegged the GDP growth rate for FY25 at 7.2 per cent.
Retail inflation eased to a 12-month low of 4.7 percent in May, although food inflation remained elevated.
The RBI, which is mandated to ensure that inflation remains at 4 per cent (with a margin of 2 per cent on either side), mainly takes into account the CPI (inflation based on consumer price index) when develop its monetary policy.
High-frequency indicators reveal that the national economy remains resilient, NCAER said.
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for both the manufacturing and services sectors maintained expansionary momentum despite slowing slightly in May.
Industrial production index (IIP) growth of major industries accelerated in April 2024; Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection remained buoyant year after year; bank credit growth remained above 20 percent despite some slowdown in personal credit growth; and expectations of an "above normal" monsoon despite poor rains in June remained strong for the agriculture sector, he added.
