New Delhi: India is likely to receive above normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season and La Nina conditions are likely to occur in August-September, the IMD said on Monday.
Although normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall across the country, the variability of rainfall-carrying systems increases due to climate change.
Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is decreasing while the incidence of heavy rainfall (high rainfall in a short period) is increasing, leading to more frequent droughts and floods.
India Meteorological Department chief Mrityunjay Mohapatra said at a press conference here that based on data between 1951-2023, India received above normal monsoon season rainfall on nine occasions when La Nina was followed by an El Nino phenomenon. Hui.
He said India is likely to receive above normal rainfall during the four-month monsoon season (June to September), with cumulative rainfall estimated to be 106 per cent of the long period average (87 cm).Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season, as well, with reduced snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. These conditions are favorable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.
At present, moderate El Nino conditions prevail. It is estimated that Tur will become neutral by the time the monsoon season begins. Subsequently, models suggest, El Lena status may be established by August-September, Mohapatra said.In 2023, the El Nino year, India received "below average" cumulative rainfall – 820 mm compared to the long period average of 868.6 mm. Before 2023, India had recorded "normal" and "above normal" monsoon season rainfall for four consecutive years.
El Nino conditions – periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean – are associated with weak monsoon winds and dry conditions in India.
Three large-scale climate phenomena are considered to predict monsoon season rainfall.
The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is caused by different temperatures on the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass., which also impacts the Indian monsoon through differential heating of the landmass.
The south-west monsoon provides about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall which is important for the agricultural sector. The share of agriculture in the country's GDP is about 1 percent.
Although normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall across the country, the variability of rainfall-carrying systems increases due to climate change.
Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is decreasing while the incidence of heavy rainfall (high rainfall in a short period) is increasing, leading to more frequent droughts and floods.
India Meteorological Department chief Mrityunjay Mohapatra said at a press conference here that based on data between 1951-2023, India received above normal monsoon season rainfall on nine occasions when La Nina was followed by an El Nino phenomenon. Hui.
He said India is likely to receive above normal rainfall during the four-month monsoon season (June to September), with cumulative rainfall estimated to be 106 per cent of the long period average (87 cm).Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season, as well, with reduced snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. These conditions are favorable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.
At present, moderate El Nino conditions prevail. It is estimated that Tur will become neutral by the time the monsoon season begins. Subsequently, models suggest, El Lena status may be established by August-September, Mohapatra said.In 2023, the El Nino year, India received "below average" cumulative rainfall – 820 mm compared to the long period average of 868.6 mm. Before 2023, India had recorded "normal" and "above normal" monsoon season rainfall for four consecutive years.
El Nino conditions – periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean – are associated with weak monsoon winds and dry conditions in India.
Three large-scale climate phenomena are considered to predict monsoon season rainfall.
The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is caused by different temperatures on the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass., which also impacts the Indian monsoon through differential heating of the landmass.
The south-west monsoon provides about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall which is important for the agricultural sector. The share of agriculture in the country's GDP is about 1 percent.
