The monsoon, which usually hits Kerala around June 1 and retreats by mid-September, is expected to be 106 per cent of the long-term average this year, said M. Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences.
"Forecasts based on both dynamical and statistical models suggest that quantitatively, monsoon seasonal rainfall during June to September is likely to be 106 per cent of the long period average," Ravichandran said at a press conference.
IMD chief Mrityunjay Mohapatra said El Nino, which disrupts the monsoon, is weakening and will enter the neutral phase by the time the monsoon arrives.
La Nina, which is a seasonal phenomenon that causes increased rainfall in India, will set in by August, he said.
Monsoon plays an important role in the Indian economy as about 50 percent of the country's agricultural land has no other source of irrigation.Monsoon rains are also important for recharging the country's reservoirs and aquifers, allowing the water to be used to irrigate crops later in the year.
India has emerged as a major exporter of food grains but had to curb foreign shipments of sugar, rice, wheat and onions to boost domestic supplies and keep prices in check as irregular monsoons last year hit agricultural output. .
Strong growth in the agriculture sector helps keep inflation under control.
The IMD defines average or normal rainfall for the June–September season as between 96 percent and 104 percent of the 50-year average of 87 cm (35 in).
Apart from supplying food, the agriculture sector also plays an important role in providing demand for industrial goods like two-wheelers, refrigerators and fast moving consumer goods (FMCG).Therefore, increase in agricultural production and income besides contributing directly to GDP growth also leads to increase in industrial growth.
"Forecasts based on both dynamical and statistical models suggest that quantitatively, monsoon seasonal rainfall during June to September is likely to be 106 per cent of the long period average," Ravichandran said at a press conference.
IMD chief Mrityunjay Mohapatra said El Nino, which disrupts the monsoon, is weakening and will enter the neutral phase by the time the monsoon arrives.
La Nina, which is a seasonal phenomenon that causes increased rainfall in India, will set in by August, he said.
Monsoon plays an important role in the Indian economy as about 50 percent of the country's agricultural land has no other source of irrigation.Monsoon rains are also important for recharging the country's reservoirs and aquifers, allowing the water to be used to irrigate crops later in the year.
India has emerged as a major exporter of food grains but had to curb foreign shipments of sugar, rice, wheat and onions to boost domestic supplies and keep prices in check as irregular monsoons last year hit agricultural output. .
Strong growth in the agriculture sector helps keep inflation under control.
The IMD defines average or normal rainfall for the June–September season as between 96 percent and 104 percent of the 50-year average of 87 cm (35 in).
Apart from supplying food, the agriculture sector also plays an important role in providing demand for industrial goods like two-wheelers, refrigerators and fast moving consumer goods (FMCG).Therefore, increase in agricultural production and income besides contributing directly to GDP growth also leads to increase in industrial growth.
