London, When Hurricane Beryl hit the Grenadine Islands on July 1, its 150 mph winds and impressive storm surge made it the earliest Category 5 storm (the most destructive rating on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale). ) who has seen the tropical Atlantic.
An active hurricane season was forecast well in advance in 2024. However, the speed at which Beryl intensified, jumping from tropical storm strength with average winds of 70 mph to major hurricane status with winds of 130 mph. In just 24 hours, it amazed scientists.
"Beryl is a storm more typical of the heart of the hurricane season than June, and its rapid intensification and strength has likely been driven by unusually warm waters," says Brian Tang, associate professor of atmospheric sciences at the University at Albany, State New York University.As the world warms faster due to record fossil fuel emissions, research suggests more unpleasant surprises are ahead.
In a narrow strip of the mid-Atlantic Ocean where most hurricanes form, sea surface temperatures are abnormally high. In fact, ocean heat content (a measure of how much energy is contained in the surface water from which hurricanes gain power) was close to its September average on July 1.
Water slowly builds up heat, so it's alarming to see ocean heat approaching its usual peak at the beginning of summer. If the tropical Atlantic is already producing such storms, what could the rest of the hurricane season hold? A bumper season
"If the National Hurricane Center's initial forecast, released on May 23, is correct, the North Atlantic could see 17 to 25 named storms, eight to 13 hurricanes, and four to seven major hurricanes by the end of November." says Jhordanne Jones, a postdoctoral researcher studying how climate change affects the scientific effort to predict hurricanes at Purdue University.
"That's the most named storms in any preseason forecast." Seawater warmer than 26 degrees Celsius (79°F) is the lifeblood of hurricanes. Warm, humid air is another prerequisite. But that's not all these monsters need to reach the limits of their savagery: constant winds in the upper and lower atmosphere are also needed to keep cyclonic storms moving.
A shift from El Niño to La Niña (two opposing phases in a long-term temperature pattern in the Pacific) is expected later this summer. This could crush the trade winds that would otherwise tear apart a hurricane's vortex. Jones says:
"La Niña may indicate an earlier start to the season as well as a longer season, as La Niña, along with a warm Atlantic, maintains a favorable hurricane environment earlier and longer during the year." that global warming causes more hurricanes. But that's not what research has found so far, according to Ben Clarke (University of Oxford) and Friederike Otto (Imperial College London), two scientists trying to attribute the role of climate change in extreme weather events.
“Warm, moist air and high ocean temperatures are abundant in a rapidly warming world. However, there is no evidence that hurricanes are occurring more frequently, nor do scientists expect this to change with greater climate change,” they say.
Instead, the hurricanes that do occur are more likely to be major storms like Beryl. Conditions conducive to hurricane formation will also be found further north and south of the equator, as the ocean is warming rapidly everywhere. And Atlantic hurricanes can form outside of the season (June 1 to November 30) when people expect them. “There is also evidence that they are moving more slowly and are increasingly likely to stop for a while. complete near the coast, which will cause more flooding as more rain falls on a location. This was one of the reasons why Hurricane Harvey, which hit Texas and Louisiana in 2017, was so destructive,” Clarke and Otto say.
The trio of deadly hurricanes (Harvey, Irma and Maria) that hit the Atlantic in quick succession that summer gave people little respite. These “storm clusters,” as climate adaptation researcher Anitha Karthik (Edinburgh Napier University) calls them, are a growing climate trend that is making hurricane-prone areas increasingly inhospitable.
Climate colonialism“When Hurricane Maria hit the eastern Caribbean island of Dominica in 2017, it caused a kind of devastation unthinkable for larger countries,” says Emily Wilkinson, a climate resilience expert at the University of the West Indies.
“The Category 5 hurricane damaged 98 per cent of building roofs and caused $1.2bn (£950m) worth of damage. “Dominica effectively lost 226 percent of its GDP overnight.”
Dominica vowed to become the first climate-resilient nation and set about rebuilding homes, bridges and other infrastructure. Conserving forests and reefs that buffer rain, wind and waves was a priority, Wilkinson says. But in trying to build a sustainable future from Maria's remains, Dominica had to grapple with its past as a European colony, a fate shared by many small island states in the Caribbean and elsewhere. “On most Caribbean islands “The exposure to hazards is about the same, but research shows that poverty and social inequality dramatically magnify the severity of disasters,” say Levi Gahman and Gabrielle Thongs, professors of geography, also at the University of Massachusetts. West Indies.
The British imposed a plantation economy on Dominica that squandered the island's productive potential and channeled its wealth abroad, Wilkinson says.
"However, Dominica also has the largest remaining indigenous community in the Caribbean, and the Kalinago people have agricultural practices that combine crop diversification with planting methods that help stabilize slopes," he adds. Climate-vulnerable states They can take advantage of advantages like these to navigate an uncertain future. But the experiences of the Caribbean islands show how a supposedly historical process like colonialism is still alive in the present.
The growing storms will add greater urgency to demands for “climate reparations” for the formerly colonized world from the rich countries that have contributed most to the climate problem. (The Conversation) PY
P.Y.
An active hurricane season was forecast well in advance in 2024. However, the speed at which Beryl intensified, jumping from tropical storm strength with average winds of 70 mph to major hurricane status with winds of 130 mph. In just 24 hours, it amazed scientists.
"Beryl is a storm more typical of the heart of the hurricane season than June, and its rapid intensification and strength has likely been driven by unusually warm waters," says Brian Tang, associate professor of atmospheric sciences at the University at Albany, State New York University.As the world warms faster due to record fossil fuel emissions, research suggests more unpleasant surprises are ahead.
In a narrow strip of the mid-Atlantic Ocean where most hurricanes form, sea surface temperatures are abnormally high. In fact, ocean heat content (a measure of how much energy is contained in the surface water from which hurricanes gain power) was close to its September average on July 1.
Water slowly builds up heat, so it's alarming to see ocean heat approaching its usual peak at the beginning of summer. If the tropical Atlantic is already producing such storms, what could the rest of the hurricane season hold? A bumper season
"If the National Hurricane Center's initial forecast, released on May 23, is correct, the North Atlantic could see 17 to 25 named storms, eight to 13 hurricanes, and four to seven major hurricanes by the end of November." says Jhordanne Jones, a postdoctoral researcher studying how climate change affects the scientific effort to predict hurricanes at Purdue University.
"That's the most named storms in any preseason forecast." Seawater warmer than 26 degrees Celsius (79°F) is the lifeblood of hurricanes. Warm, humid air is another prerequisite. But that's not all these monsters need to reach the limits of their savagery: constant winds in the upper and lower atmosphere are also needed to keep cyclonic storms moving.
A shift from El Niño to La Niña (two opposing phases in a long-term temperature pattern in the Pacific) is expected later this summer. This could crush the trade winds that would otherwise tear apart a hurricane's vortex. Jones says:
"La Niña may indicate an earlier start to the season as well as a longer season, as La Niña, along with a warm Atlantic, maintains a favorable hurricane environment earlier and longer during the year." that global warming causes more hurricanes. But that's not what research has found so far, according to Ben Clarke (University of Oxford) and Friederike Otto (Imperial College London), two scientists trying to attribute the role of climate change in extreme weather events.
“Warm, moist air and high ocean temperatures are abundant in a rapidly warming world. However, there is no evidence that hurricanes are occurring more frequently, nor do scientists expect this to change with greater climate change,” they say.
Instead, the hurricanes that do occur are more likely to be major storms like Beryl. Conditions conducive to hurricane formation will also be found further north and south of the equator, as the ocean is warming rapidly everywhere. And Atlantic hurricanes can form outside of the season (June 1 to November 30) when people expect them. “There is also evidence that they are moving more slowly and are increasingly likely to stop for a while. complete near the coast, which will cause more flooding as more rain falls on a location. This was one of the reasons why Hurricane Harvey, which hit Texas and Louisiana in 2017, was so destructive,” Clarke and Otto say.
The trio of deadly hurricanes (Harvey, Irma and Maria) that hit the Atlantic in quick succession that summer gave people little respite. These “storm clusters,” as climate adaptation researcher Anitha Karthik (Edinburgh Napier University) calls them, are a growing climate trend that is making hurricane-prone areas increasingly inhospitable.
Climate colonialism“When Hurricane Maria hit the eastern Caribbean island of Dominica in 2017, it caused a kind of devastation unthinkable for larger countries,” says Emily Wilkinson, a climate resilience expert at the University of the West Indies.
“The Category 5 hurricane damaged 98 per cent of building roofs and caused $1.2bn (£950m) worth of damage. “Dominica effectively lost 226 percent of its GDP overnight.”
Dominica vowed to become the first climate-resilient nation and set about rebuilding homes, bridges and other infrastructure. Conserving forests and reefs that buffer rain, wind and waves was a priority, Wilkinson says. But in trying to build a sustainable future from Maria's remains, Dominica had to grapple with its past as a European colony, a fate shared by many small island states in the Caribbean and elsewhere. “On most Caribbean islands “The exposure to hazards is about the same, but research shows that poverty and social inequality dramatically magnify the severity of disasters,” say Levi Gahman and Gabrielle Thongs, professors of geography, also at the University of Massachusetts. West Indies.
The British imposed a plantation economy on Dominica that squandered the island's productive potential and channeled its wealth abroad, Wilkinson says.
"However, Dominica also has the largest remaining indigenous community in the Caribbean, and the Kalinago people have agricultural practices that combine crop diversification with planting methods that help stabilize slopes," he adds. Climate-vulnerable states They can take advantage of advantages like these to navigate an uncertain future. But the experiences of the Caribbean islands show how a supposedly historical process like colonialism is still alive in the present.
The growing storms will add greater urgency to demands for “climate reparations” for the formerly colonized world from the rich countries that have contributed most to the climate problem. (The Conversation) PY
P.Y.
