Victoria, ISIS's so-called caliphate established in 2014 may no longer exist and its leadership may be gone, but security prospects in its former territories remain bleak.
On June 29, 2014, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi stood on the podium of the al-Nuri mosque in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul.
He spoke to the world, declaring the establishment of the "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS) and calling on Muslims around the world to escalate a war against what he called "the enemies of God." Just weeks before Al -Baghdadi made his statement, the terrorist group had taken Mosul when a few hundred ISIS men drove out tens of thousands of supposedly well-trained Iraqi security forces. The dramatic capture led to ISIS control over large swathes of northern Iraq and neighboring Syria.
A decade later, the caliphate is long gone, al-Baghdadi is dead and the al-Nuri mosque was destroyed in a final act of vandalism during the fierce battle to gain control of Mosul in 2017.
However, what remains are thousands of ISIS followers who survived. They are now in the world's largest detention camp, in northeastern Syria. The Al-Hol camp remains unstable. And the work to prevent the resurgence of ISIS – or any other radical extremist group – as a powerful force is still incomplete.
It is extremely important, considering the volatility, lack of legal status and humanitarian crises in the detention camps of northeastern Syria, where ISIS-affiliated women and children have been detained since 2019.
At its peak, ISIS declared global jihad and managed to capture strategic cities such as Raqqa and Deir Ezzor in Syria, spreading fear through orchestrated terrorism in the region and solitary acts of terrorism abroad. In 2019, an international coalition, led by The United States and supported by the Kurdish-led forces in Syria (the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)) and the Iraqi army and the Kurdish peshmerga, claimed these territories.
Major battles, such as that of Baghouz in 2019, marked the territorial end of the 'Caliphate'.
However, the security outlook remains very bleak. Kurdish-led forces, backed by the United States, control a significant part of northeastern Syria, while others are controlled by factions backed by Turkey or the Syrian government, which is itself backed by Russia. The Democratic Union Party , led by the Kurds and known as PYD, governs the northeastern areas of Syria. These areas enjoy a certain degree of autonomy. The United States has Kurdish forces as allies, while Turkey allied itself with factions that oppose them, perceiving the Kurds as a threat.
This geopolitical dynamic makes establishing bases that can secure and stabilize ground zero extremely complicated.
Fragmented control poses myriad security challenges, from the resurgence of ISIS sleeper cells to rising extremism in detention camps. This has led to an increase in sporadic attacks by sleeper cells, further entrenching extreme ideologies inside and outside the camp. The humanitarian situation in the liberated areas is disastrous.
Infrastructure was destroyed during the war, leaving populations with no or limited access to health services, education or drinking water.
Detention camps, including Al-Hol, which house women and children linked to ISIS, suffer from a lack of resources and relief supplies. As of January 2024 there were more than 45,000 in the camps. The majority are women and children.
This exacerbates the already fragile security situation, fueling grievances among residents and ISIS sympathizers outside the camp.
ISIS attacks persistAlthough ISIS was defeated as a territorial entity, its sleeper cells continue to launch attacks.
This includes the attempted escape from Ghwayran prison in northeastern Syria with the help of sleeper cells from abroad in January 2022, where more than 3,500 ISIS inmates were held, 474 attacks between 2022 and 2023 in Syria and an average of 90 operations per month from January 2020 to September 2021 in Iraq.
Radicalized women in al-Hol camp still transmit extremist ideology to children. This is exacerbated by grievances associated with poor living conditions and internal tension in the countryside. As a result, secret "Sharia courts" have been established in the countryside. International efforts to address the legal status of former ISIS affiliates have been marked by problems.
Many states are unwilling to welcome back their nationals, turning a deaf ear to calls for repatriation, while others, such as the United Kingdom, have revoked the citizenship of some, leaving those people in legal limbo.
In the absence of international recognition of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), a legal framework that meets international standards is not only the solution, but a fair process for the victims of ISIS. Such a framework would not only facilitate trials but also reintegration, rehabilitation and deradicalization efforts.
The social and economic challenges are also cumulative. The effects of the destruction of infrastructure and the lack of resources hinder the economic recovery and social cohesion of the region.
Breeding ground for extremistsCommunity reconciliation faces multiple obstacles marked by the grievances of those affected by ISIS. Rehabilitation and reintegration efforts are essential but stagnant.
Security analysts and researchers have been calling for action as there is agreement that ignoring signs or resurgences, or even a slow response to reintegration, rehabilitation and deradicalization, will lead to the rise of the next wave of jihadists.
This is an especially accurate assessment, supported by the increase in attacks on sleeper cells and the conditions in the camps that have served as a breeding ground for extremism among young people. While the recovered regions enjoy different levels of development Social and security issues, detention camps and communities to which ISIS affiliates have returned face a significant security challenge.
In the absence of credible reintegration, rehabilitation and deradicalization processes, the international community is on a time bomb.
In the long term, sustainable peace and security requires coordinated international efforts to find a solution to camp conditions, legal frameworks for repatriation, trails, recognition of AANES status, reintegration, rehabilitation and deradicalization processes, and community cohesion .Assuming that ISIS was defeated in 2019 is not only inaccurate but risky.
While their army may have been defeated, their ideology never weakened and still thrives, especially in the detention camps.
Addressing these realities is crucial to prevent not only the resurgence of ISIS but also any other future radical extremist groups in the region and ensure sustainable security. (360info.org) GRSGRS
On June 29, 2014, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi stood on the podium of the al-Nuri mosque in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul.
He spoke to the world, declaring the establishment of the "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS) and calling on Muslims around the world to escalate a war against what he called "the enemies of God." Just weeks before Al -Baghdadi made his statement, the terrorist group had taken Mosul when a few hundred ISIS men drove out tens of thousands of supposedly well-trained Iraqi security forces. The dramatic capture led to ISIS control over large swathes of northern Iraq and neighboring Syria.
A decade later, the caliphate is long gone, al-Baghdadi is dead and the al-Nuri mosque was destroyed in a final act of vandalism during the fierce battle to gain control of Mosul in 2017.
However, what remains are thousands of ISIS followers who survived. They are now in the world's largest detention camp, in northeastern Syria. The Al-Hol camp remains unstable. And the work to prevent the resurgence of ISIS – or any other radical extremist group – as a powerful force is still incomplete.
It is extremely important, considering the volatility, lack of legal status and humanitarian crises in the detention camps of northeastern Syria, where ISIS-affiliated women and children have been detained since 2019.
At its peak, ISIS declared global jihad and managed to capture strategic cities such as Raqqa and Deir Ezzor in Syria, spreading fear through orchestrated terrorism in the region and solitary acts of terrorism abroad. In 2019, an international coalition, led by The United States and supported by the Kurdish-led forces in Syria (the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)) and the Iraqi army and the Kurdish peshmerga, claimed these territories.
Major battles, such as that of Baghouz in 2019, marked the territorial end of the 'Caliphate'.
However, the security outlook remains very bleak. Kurdish-led forces, backed by the United States, control a significant part of northeastern Syria, while others are controlled by factions backed by Turkey or the Syrian government, which is itself backed by Russia. The Democratic Union Party , led by the Kurds and known as PYD, governs the northeastern areas of Syria. These areas enjoy a certain degree of autonomy. The United States has Kurdish forces as allies, while Turkey allied itself with factions that oppose them, perceiving the Kurds as a threat.
This geopolitical dynamic makes establishing bases that can secure and stabilize ground zero extremely complicated.
Fragmented control poses myriad security challenges, from the resurgence of ISIS sleeper cells to rising extremism in detention camps. This has led to an increase in sporadic attacks by sleeper cells, further entrenching extreme ideologies inside and outside the camp. The humanitarian situation in the liberated areas is disastrous.
Infrastructure was destroyed during the war, leaving populations with no or limited access to health services, education or drinking water.
Detention camps, including Al-Hol, which house women and children linked to ISIS, suffer from a lack of resources and relief supplies. As of January 2024 there were more than 45,000 in the camps. The majority are women and children.
This exacerbates the already fragile security situation, fueling grievances among residents and ISIS sympathizers outside the camp.
ISIS attacks persistAlthough ISIS was defeated as a territorial entity, its sleeper cells continue to launch attacks.
This includes the attempted escape from Ghwayran prison in northeastern Syria with the help of sleeper cells from abroad in January 2022, where more than 3,500 ISIS inmates were held, 474 attacks between 2022 and 2023 in Syria and an average of 90 operations per month from January 2020 to September 2021 in Iraq.
Radicalized women in al-Hol camp still transmit extremist ideology to children. This is exacerbated by grievances associated with poor living conditions and internal tension in the countryside. As a result, secret "Sharia courts" have been established in the countryside. International efforts to address the legal status of former ISIS affiliates have been marked by problems.
Many states are unwilling to welcome back their nationals, turning a deaf ear to calls for repatriation, while others, such as the United Kingdom, have revoked the citizenship of some, leaving those people in legal limbo.
In the absence of international recognition of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), a legal framework that meets international standards is not only the solution, but a fair process for the victims of ISIS. Such a framework would not only facilitate trials but also reintegration, rehabilitation and deradicalization efforts.
The social and economic challenges are also cumulative. The effects of the destruction of infrastructure and the lack of resources hinder the economic recovery and social cohesion of the region.
Breeding ground for extremistsCommunity reconciliation faces multiple obstacles marked by the grievances of those affected by ISIS. Rehabilitation and reintegration efforts are essential but stagnant.
Security analysts and researchers have been calling for action as there is agreement that ignoring signs or resurgences, or even a slow response to reintegration, rehabilitation and deradicalization, will lead to the rise of the next wave of jihadists.
This is an especially accurate assessment, supported by the increase in attacks on sleeper cells and the conditions in the camps that have served as a breeding ground for extremism among young people. While the recovered regions enjoy different levels of development Social and security issues, detention camps and communities to which ISIS affiliates have returned face a significant security challenge.
In the absence of credible reintegration, rehabilitation and deradicalization processes, the international community is on a time bomb.
In the long term, sustainable peace and security requires coordinated international efforts to find a solution to camp conditions, legal frameworks for repatriation, trails, recognition of AANES status, reintegration, rehabilitation and deradicalization processes, and community cohesion .Assuming that ISIS was defeated in 2019 is not only inaccurate but risky.
While their army may have been defeated, their ideology never weakened and still thrives, especially in the detention camps.
Addressing these realities is crucial to prevent not only the resurgence of ISIS but also any other future radical extremist groups in the region and ensure sustainable security. (360info.org) GRSGRS
