“While we maintain our call for a 50 bps rate cut starting from 3QFY25, we do not see the risk of a further delay in RBI rate cut being driven by rising crude oil prices, which could lead to US Fed rate cuts. There is another push on the timing of the easing cycle. Volatile food inflation,” said Kotak Institutional Equities.

“In the near term, we see a risk of our 1QFY25 average inflation rising to 5 per cent due to higher temperatures, volatile food inflation, geopolitics risks and ongoing OPEC Plus supply cuts pushing up crude oil prices and non-energy Commodity prices are increasing. These risks could remain a challenge for last mile disinflation, as also noted by the RBI governor, the brokerage said.

As expected, headline inflation eased to 4.9 per cent in March, while core inflation eased marginally to 3.3 per cent. “We expect only a gradual decline in headline inflation,” the brokerage said.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services said in a report that inflation and IIP are in line with expectations, with no major impact on monetary fiscal policy.

“We expect CPI to average 4.5 percent next year. In our view, a rate cut may happen only towards the end of FY2025,” the brokerage said.