New Delhi: India will receive above normal monsoon rains this season due to favorable La Nina conditions, the IMD said on Monday, which will please farmers and policy planners.
Ministry of Earth Sciences Secretary M Ravichandran told a press conference that seasonal rainfall would be 'above normal', and was pegged at 106 per cent of the long period average (87 cm).
Some parts of the country are already battling extreme heat and a large number of heat wave days are expected in the period from April to June. This could put pressure on power grids and result in water shortages in many areas.
Monsoon is important for India's agricultural landscape, with 52 percent of the net cultivable area dependent on it.It is also important for replenishing the vital reservoirs for drinking water apart from power generation across the country.
Therefore, the prediction of above normal rainfall during the monsoon season is a big relief for the rapidly developing South Asian country.
Although normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall across the country, the variability of rainfall-carrying systems increases due to climate change.
IMD Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra said during a press conference that parts of north-west, east and north-east India are expected to receive below normal rainfall during the season.
However, the models have not given any "clear signal" about monsoon rainfall for many parts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, which are the main monsoon regions (agriculture mainly Rain based).Of the country.
The IMD chief said there is a 29 per cent chance of normal rainfall, 31 per cent chance of above normal rainfall and 30 per cent chance of excess rainfall during the monsoon season.
According to the IMD, rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the 50-year average of 87 cm is considered 'normal'.
Precipitation less than 90 per cent of the long period average is considered 'deficient', 90 per cent to 95 per cent 'below normal', 10 per cent to 110 per cent 'above normal' and more than 100 per cent 'above normal'. It is considered 'excessive rainfall'.
Mohapatra said data for the period 1951-2023 shows that India received above normal monsoon season rainfall on all nine occasions when La Nina was followed by an El Niño event.Monsoon has been above normal in 20 out of 22 last nine years in the country.
At present El Nino situation is prevailing. ENSO neutral conditions are expected in the first half of the monsoon season. Subsequently, models suggest, El Lena status may be established by August-September, Mohapatra said.
Positive Indian Ocean dipole conditions are predicted to be favorable for the Indian monsoon during the season.Furthermore, snow cover is less in the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia. He said, therefore all conditions are favourable.
El Nino conditions – periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean – are associated with weak monsoon winds and dry conditions in India.
IMD senior scientist D S Pai said La Nina conditions – the opposite of El Nino – are a major factor in the possibility of "above normal" rainfall during the monsoon season.
Mohapatra said the IMD will provide updates on the onset of monsoon over India's landmass in mid-May and rainfall distribution during June, July, August and September.Three large-scale climate phenomena are considered to predict monsoon season rainfall.
The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is caused by different temperatures on the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass. , which also impacts the Indian monsoon through differential heating of the landmass.
Ministry of Earth Sciences Secretary M Ravichandran told a press conference that seasonal rainfall would be 'above normal', and was pegged at 106 per cent of the long period average (87 cm).
Some parts of the country are already battling extreme heat and a large number of heat wave days are expected in the period from April to June. This could put pressure on power grids and result in water shortages in many areas.
Monsoon is important for India's agricultural landscape, with 52 percent of the net cultivable area dependent on it.It is also important for replenishing the vital reservoirs for drinking water apart from power generation across the country.
Therefore, the prediction of above normal rainfall during the monsoon season is a big relief for the rapidly developing South Asian country.
Although normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall across the country, the variability of rainfall-carrying systems increases due to climate change.
IMD Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra said during a press conference that parts of north-west, east and north-east India are expected to receive below normal rainfall during the season.
However, the models have not given any "clear signal" about monsoon rainfall for many parts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, which are the main monsoon regions (agriculture mainly Rain based).Of the country.
The IMD chief said there is a 29 per cent chance of normal rainfall, 31 per cent chance of above normal rainfall and 30 per cent chance of excess rainfall during the monsoon season.
According to the IMD, rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the 50-year average of 87 cm is considered 'normal'.
Precipitation less than 90 per cent of the long period average is considered 'deficient', 90 per cent to 95 per cent 'below normal', 10 per cent to 110 per cent 'above normal' and more than 100 per cent 'above normal'. It is considered 'excessive rainfall'.
Mohapatra said data for the period 1951-2023 shows that India received above normal monsoon season rainfall on all nine occasions when La Nina was followed by an El Niño event.Monsoon has been above normal in 20 out of 22 last nine years in the country.
At present El Nino situation is prevailing. ENSO neutral conditions are expected in the first half of the monsoon season. Subsequently, models suggest, El Lena status may be established by August-September, Mohapatra said.
Positive Indian Ocean dipole conditions are predicted to be favorable for the Indian monsoon during the season.Furthermore, snow cover is less in the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia. He said, therefore all conditions are favourable.
El Nino conditions – periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean – are associated with weak monsoon winds and dry conditions in India.
IMD senior scientist D S Pai said La Nina conditions – the opposite of El Nino – are a major factor in the possibility of "above normal" rainfall during the monsoon season.
Mohapatra said the IMD will provide updates on the onset of monsoon over India's landmass in mid-May and rainfall distribution during June, July, August and September.Three large-scale climate phenomena are considered to predict monsoon season rainfall.
The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is caused by different temperatures on the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass. , which also impacts the Indian monsoon through differential heating of the landmass.
