Thiruvananthapuram: The BJP's stellar performance in Kerala, including its win from Thrissur and increasing its vote share in several constituencies in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, clearly indicates a change in the political landscape of the southern state, say eminent political analysts.
Apart from actor-politician Suresh Gopi winning from Thrissur, the BJP-led NDA's vote share has increased from 15 per cent in 2019 to around 20 per cent now.
Analysts have indicated that the political landscape of Kerala is evolving from a bipolar contest traditionally dominated by the Congress-led UDF and the CPI(M)-led LDF to a tri-polar one. This change, which began in the 2011 assembly elections, Happening slowly since then, now becoming more evident.
The 2024 parliamentary elections in Kerala confirm this change, he said, as the NDA has made major inroads into the Kerala electorate and has secured nearly 20 per cent vote share in many constituencies where it contested.According to him, constituencies like Thrissur, where the NDA won, and increased vote share in constituencies like Attingal and Alappuzha, provided a big boost for the BJP, confirming that the 'subaltern' in states like Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh The 'Hindutva' strategy has been successfully implemented. It was effective in Kerala also. In Thrissur, BJP won with 37.8 percent of the total votes. In Thiruvananthapuram, BJP stood second by securing 35.52 percent votes.
In Attingal, a Left stronghold, the BJP candidate got 31.64 per cent votes, just 1.65 per cent behind the winning UDF candidate.
In Alappuzha, another CPI(M) and Congress stronghold, the BJP candidate got 28.3 per cent of the votes. Analysts say there has been a change in the preferences of minority Christians, traditional Congress supporters and OBCs, once the Left's committed vote bank in Kerala. Were, because they no longer consider BJP a necessary evil.
Sajjad said, “We have been seeing this since the 2011 assembly elections.The Left had lost about 20 percent of its OBC vote share, and it compensated for this by earning minority votes. In local body elections, we have seen largely triangular contests,” said Ibrahim, a leading election analyst at the University of Kerala.
The shift in minority Christian votes was very evident in constituencies like Thrissur and Thiruvananthapuram.Dr. G Gopakumar said, “Upper caste Christians are in majority among the Christian community in Kerala.It is easy for them to associate with the BJP because Hindu elements have now joined Christian customs. He is also practical when it comes to politics," said the former vice-chancellor of a central university and a well-known election analyst.
He said the BJP's change in approach in Kerala, where it set aside its 'religious chauvinism' and tried to reach out to minorities, OBCs and Dalits, helped it gain more ground.
“This helped him improve his vote share in Tamil Nadu, a state with strong Dravidian sentiments, and Kerala, which has a strong communist mindset,” Gopkumar said.Gopkumar said, "BJP has realized that their religious chauvinism cannot win them votes in Kerala. They now understand that they need a more pluralistic approach to win votes in Kerala."
He said that technically, Hindus are a minority in Kerala if the number of Dalit Christians is included in the minority community. According to current records, there are 46 percent minorities in Kerala.
“Therefore, the BJP knows very well that it cannot move forward in Kerala if it does not get minority votes and in places like Thrissur, they have implemented this understanding well,” said Gopkumar. According to Pro-Vice Chancellor Dr Prabhash J, Muslim appeasement by the Left also contributed to Hindu voters switching their loyalty to the BJP."Earlier, the Left used to secure all their votes. But later, they started losing their committed voters, first to the UDF and now to either the UDF or the NDA," he said.
He said that when the Congress faced a crisis at the national level, it became easier for disillusioned voters to shift their allegiance to the BJP, which was gaining strength. The Left has attacked top organizational and religious leaders of Islam in Kerala. Tried to please the leaders thinking that if they convince them, Muslim votes will come to them. They did not talk to the common Muslims.The overt focus on CAA has not had an impact. “The Christian community is not really concerned about it,” Prabhash said.
Prabhash believes that both the UDF and the Left compromised their secular credentials, leading people to believe that there was not much difference between the three fronts.
Gopkumar believes that the BJP's propaganda highlighting issues like 'love jihad' among Christians has created anxiety within the Christian community in Kerala. "Christians in Kerala are international and are scared of the international Muslim upsurge. .Similarly, the Left's key vote bank, Hindus, especially communities like Ezhavas, have also started changing. The Left's strong Muslim appeasement has alienated such voters," Gopkumar said.
However, he said that Gopi's victory in Thrissur was more personal than political.
"The Christian community believes in philanthropy and Gopi is one of the best philanthropists of the cinema community. He helped a lot of poor people and his work was rewarded.There were 21 per cent Christian voters in Thrissur and they voted en masse for Gopi," Gopakumar said. Ibrahim said Kerala voters have not completely accepted the BJP, but the party's new political vision has convinced them. It has helped in reducing hostility among voters.
Apart from actor-politician Suresh Gopi winning from Thrissur, the BJP-led NDA's vote share has increased from 15 per cent in 2019 to around 20 per cent now.
Analysts have indicated that the political landscape of Kerala is evolving from a bipolar contest traditionally dominated by the Congress-led UDF and the CPI(M)-led LDF to a tri-polar one. This change, which began in the 2011 assembly elections, Happening slowly since then, now becoming more evident.
The 2024 parliamentary elections in Kerala confirm this change, he said, as the NDA has made major inroads into the Kerala electorate and has secured nearly 20 per cent vote share in many constituencies where it contested.According to him, constituencies like Thrissur, where the NDA won, and increased vote share in constituencies like Attingal and Alappuzha, provided a big boost for the BJP, confirming that the 'subaltern' in states like Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh The 'Hindutva' strategy has been successfully implemented. It was effective in Kerala also. In Thrissur, BJP won with 37.8 percent of the total votes. In Thiruvananthapuram, BJP stood second by securing 35.52 percent votes.
In Attingal, a Left stronghold, the BJP candidate got 31.64 per cent votes, just 1.65 per cent behind the winning UDF candidate.
In Alappuzha, another CPI(M) and Congress stronghold, the BJP candidate got 28.3 per cent of the votes. Analysts say there has been a change in the preferences of minority Christians, traditional Congress supporters and OBCs, once the Left's committed vote bank in Kerala. Were, because they no longer consider BJP a necessary evil.
Sajjad said, “We have been seeing this since the 2011 assembly elections.The Left had lost about 20 percent of its OBC vote share, and it compensated for this by earning minority votes. In local body elections, we have seen largely triangular contests,” said Ibrahim, a leading election analyst at the University of Kerala.
The shift in minority Christian votes was very evident in constituencies like Thrissur and Thiruvananthapuram.Dr. G Gopakumar said, “Upper caste Christians are in majority among the Christian community in Kerala.It is easy for them to associate with the BJP because Hindu elements have now joined Christian customs. He is also practical when it comes to politics," said the former vice-chancellor of a central university and a well-known election analyst.
He said the BJP's change in approach in Kerala, where it set aside its 'religious chauvinism' and tried to reach out to minorities, OBCs and Dalits, helped it gain more ground.
“This helped him improve his vote share in Tamil Nadu, a state with strong Dravidian sentiments, and Kerala, which has a strong communist mindset,” Gopkumar said.Gopkumar said, "BJP has realized that their religious chauvinism cannot win them votes in Kerala. They now understand that they need a more pluralistic approach to win votes in Kerala."
He said that technically, Hindus are a minority in Kerala if the number of Dalit Christians is included in the minority community. According to current records, there are 46 percent minorities in Kerala.
“Therefore, the BJP knows very well that it cannot move forward in Kerala if it does not get minority votes and in places like Thrissur, they have implemented this understanding well,” said Gopkumar. According to Pro-Vice Chancellor Dr Prabhash J, Muslim appeasement by the Left also contributed to Hindu voters switching their loyalty to the BJP."Earlier, the Left used to secure all their votes. But later, they started losing their committed voters, first to the UDF and now to either the UDF or the NDA," he said.
He said that when the Congress faced a crisis at the national level, it became easier for disillusioned voters to shift their allegiance to the BJP, which was gaining strength. The Left has attacked top organizational and religious leaders of Islam in Kerala. Tried to please the leaders thinking that if they convince them, Muslim votes will come to them. They did not talk to the common Muslims.The overt focus on CAA has not had an impact. “The Christian community is not really concerned about it,” Prabhash said.
Prabhash believes that both the UDF and the Left compromised their secular credentials, leading people to believe that there was not much difference between the three fronts.
Gopkumar believes that the BJP's propaganda highlighting issues like 'love jihad' among Christians has created anxiety within the Christian community in Kerala. "Christians in Kerala are international and are scared of the international Muslim upsurge. .Similarly, the Left's key vote bank, Hindus, especially communities like Ezhavas, have also started changing. The Left's strong Muslim appeasement has alienated such voters," Gopkumar said.
However, he said that Gopi's victory in Thrissur was more personal than political.
"The Christian community believes in philanthropy and Gopi is one of the best philanthropists of the cinema community. He helped a lot of poor people and his work was rewarded.There were 21 per cent Christian voters in Thrissur and they voted en masse for Gopi," Gopakumar said. Ibrahim said Kerala voters have not completely accepted the BJP, but the party's new political vision has convinced them. It has helped in reducing hostility among voters.
