The election in Bagda in North Parganas ward 24, one of the seven Assembly constituencies under Bangaon Lok Sabha, will be a four-way contest between Binay Kumar Biswas of the BJP, Madhuparna Thakur of the Trinamool Congress and Gour of the All India Forward Bloc. Biswas and Ashok Halder of Congress.
Incidentally, Madhuparna Thakur is the niece of two-time BJP Lok Sabha member from Bangaon and Union Minister of State for Ports, Shipping and Waterways, Shantanu Thakur.
They come from the Thakur family, which was the founding family of Matua Mahasangha, the largest association of the backward class Matua community who came as refugees to West Bengal from Bangladesh after partition.
In Bagda, Matua voters have been the deciding factor in many elections.
Now, according to the statistics of the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections and the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections, the BJP candidates were comfortably ahead in Bagda.
In the 2021 Assembly elections, BJP's Biswajit Das won by a margin of 9,792 votes. Das resigned as an MLA ahead of this year's Lok Sabha elections and unsuccessfully contested as a Trinamool Congress candidate from Bangaon Lok Sabha.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Das was trailing Bagda by a huge margin of 20,614 votes. So, based on simple statistics, the BJP is way ahead of its competitors.
However, there are two factors that the BJP will have to take into account for the Bagda election.
The first factor is the lineage of the Trinamool Congress candidate. Considering the status of the Thakur family among the Matuas, Madhuparna Thakur will obviously try to make the most of it.
Secondly, in any by-election, especially if it is for an Assembly constituency, the ruling party is always in an advantageous position unless there is an underlying massive anti-incumbency wave.
However, keeping in mind the history of election-related violence, the Election Commission of India has decided to deploy 15 companies of the Central Armed Police Forces in Bagda, which is the maximum among the four Assembly constituencies that will hold elections on July 10.
Incidentally, Madhuparna Thakur is the niece of two-time BJP Lok Sabha member from Bangaon and Union Minister of State for Ports, Shipping and Waterways, Shantanu Thakur.
They come from the Thakur family, which was the founding family of Matua Mahasangha, the largest association of the backward class Matua community who came as refugees to West Bengal from Bangladesh after partition.
In Bagda, Matua voters have been the deciding factor in many elections.
Now, according to the statistics of the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections and the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections, the BJP candidates were comfortably ahead in Bagda.
In the 2021 Assembly elections, BJP's Biswajit Das won by a margin of 9,792 votes. Das resigned as an MLA ahead of this year's Lok Sabha elections and unsuccessfully contested as a Trinamool Congress candidate from Bangaon Lok Sabha.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Das was trailing Bagda by a huge margin of 20,614 votes. So, based on simple statistics, the BJP is way ahead of its competitors.
However, there are two factors that the BJP will have to take into account for the Bagda election.
The first factor is the lineage of the Trinamool Congress candidate. Considering the status of the Thakur family among the Matuas, Madhuparna Thakur will obviously try to make the most of it.
Secondly, in any by-election, especially if it is for an Assembly constituency, the ruling party is always in an advantageous position unless there is an underlying massive anti-incumbency wave.
However, keeping in mind the history of election-related violence, the Election Commission of India has decided to deploy 15 companies of the Central Armed Police Forces in Bagda, which is the maximum among the four Assembly constituencies that will hold elections on July 10.
